Position:China Filter Net>Life management>House price rises pressure decreases building city hard investment is expensive
House price rises pressure decreases building city hard investment is expensive
From;  Author:Stand originally
Honored guest: Chen Jijiang base strong couplet travel invests management (China) limited company president

Recently, hair change appoint price department was released " circumstances of housing market value is analysed first quarter " , the report elaborated the pressure origin that whole of countrywide house price will still continue to rise from 4 respects: It is from current and macroscopical economy the circumstance looks, fluidity superfluous, RMB appreciates the price has pair of capital fund that include estate inside to be pulled certainly move; 2 rise be rolled steel, labour cost quickly, also meet those who drive housing price rise; 3 it is near future stock market deep adjust, a large number of capital escape the stock market, put delay as what our country economy grows at the same time, partial pull current connects link to also can exit partial capital, in investment channel stricture and inflationary rate reside the case that does not leave high to fall, these capital choose probably to enter estate market again, is not to stock a bank, pull the price that use a room to continue thereby tall; 4 it is the dweller is awaiting wait-and-see hind also can choose to enter housing market stage by stage. The market rises to house price the view of pressure is differ, we invite this week the personage inside course of study and everybody communication.

7 gist element decides house price trend

Compere: How do you look wait for afore-mentioned house price to rise pressure element?

Chen Jijiang: Recently 3 months, I also made relevant research report, a few respects and the judgement of concerned branch happen to have the same view. I think to decide price of our country house is fluctuant now of the trend have 7 gist element: "915 " one kind plan and policy are pair of economy progress assures; Chinese economy future predicts 5 years to maintain GDP year growing 7.5% is estate value prop up; Year all the rigid demand that the urban population increase rate of 4% is estate development; Estate demands exceeds supply to also make the price rise continuously; Estate is one of China's finite investment channel; The RMB appreciated to reflect estate rise in value to maintain the function of the value with inflation; Macroscopical adjusting control will bring challenge and opportunity for estate investment.

Estate is not " independent " the market. From what go 12 years to Euramerican country data is analysed, positive involves the concern of GDP and house price, a kind when the expression of estate market can inspect economic condition " lag is mirrorred " (general evening 2 to 3 quarters expression comes out) , and at present Chinese situation also is same. Supply growth to drop plus land (land development area grew 0.7%) compared to the same period only last year, sale area exceeds complete area (already successive 3 years of) , the person that buy a house is done not have " option " (comparing of supply and demand had better be in 1.15, the person that buy a house so can choose to suit his house) .
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